Disclaimer:  This is a post I made to a fantasy football forum that I frequent.  It was written in September 2008, so the names and ADP may be different, but the theory still applies today.

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Some people just want to be different.  And others are always looking for an edge.  While others just want to feel like they are on the cutting edge.  But since when is grabbing your QB in the first round the new “in” thing?  Up until a month ago, there was the occasional drafter who took Peyton in the 1st Round.  I never liked it, but knew it was probably going to happen.  But now, I’ve seen Brady, Manning,  and Brees all leave the board before I’ve even made my first pick.  What’s going on here?

Since the sun first rose upon the fantasy football landscape, the tried-and-true draft strategy of RB-RB was the way a man of respect would conduct his draft. It made for a nice, congenial draft where men were men, and took their ball carriers first.  We treated running backs with an air of reverence, and respect.  But that no longer seems to be the case anymore.  Every draft you participate in, at least two, if not more, quarterbacks are being gobbled by these hungry hungry hippos in the first round.  And for what reason?

If your league’s scoring system complies with the norm and awards 4pts / Pass TD, 1pt / 25 pass yds (and no PPR), why are you raiding the position in the first two rounds when after an analysis of your scoring structure returns results showing that quarterbacks are by no means the most valuable position on your roster?

In most leagues, you are allowed to start one quarterback.  Like a corner back, he too is on an island.  While you are choosing between Romo and Barber with your first pick in the last round, does it occur to you that you must start two running backs and two wide receivers each and every week? And that any weakness at those positions will be exposed again, and again, and again?   Sure, you can change your quarterback out every week if he fails to perform.  But for who; his backup that you drafted to cover his bye week?  Is that an acceptable solution?  Quarterback just is not a position at which you can afford depth.  So if you spend your second round pick on Romo, and he gets off to a slow start; hold on to your place in the standings, it’s gonna be a bumpy ride.

By taking your quarterback in the first two rounds, you’ve invested so much into him that your entire team has suffered.  If Barber fails to produce one week, MJD can pick up the slack.  And if you choose to start three running backs, Reggie Bush has a chance to save the day as well.  And if they all have a great day, I feel sorry for you opponent.  But if that quarterback falters, there’s no one around to give him a boost.  And you don’t have the talent at other positions to pick up the slack either, because instead of choosing Andre Johnson to anchor your wide receivers, you grabbed Drew Brees with that all important second round pick.

Every time you draft a player early, you are losing value.  Value is the name of the game.  Know that, and you know everything you need to know about fantasy football.  Value is when you take Frank Gore in the 2nd, Drew Brees in the 5th, or Chris Johnson in the 14th (or in the 9th, as now seems to be the case).  The exact opposite of value is taking a quarterback, any quarterback, in the first round.

Some, undoubtedly, will argue that Brady is worth a first round pick.  I don’t believe that to be the case, but he’s as close as it comes.  But let’s use that for a second.  Would you have taken Brady in the first round in 2007?  No.  And if you did, you lost so much value on that pick alone that you might have lost your fantasy league all the same, because you could have taken him in Round 4.  So why are you going to take him in Round 1 this year?  “Well last year’s performance, you dummy!” you might say.  And you expect him to replicate that performance, because hey, once you have a stellar season, why expect less?  Ever.  Why would the entire league spend the off season scheming to beat you?  What does it matter than everyone’s a year older and has another year of wear-and-tear on their bodies?

The pieces are in place for Brady to do exactly what he did last year.  The Patriots have retained the core elements that allowed for such a great performance.  These things are true.  But you just don’t repeat a performance like that.  You don’t throw 50 touchdown passes in back-to-back seasons.  Following Peyton’s 49 touchdown performance in 2004, he regressed to 28 touchdowns.  Such a slight drop off that I doubt anyone noticed (except those owners who draft ed him in the first round).  And where were you during the 2005 fantasy season after taking Peyton in the first round?  Screwed. Glued. And Tattooed.  So even assuming that Brady leads the league in touchdowns this year, let’s say he only scores one more than Romo did last year (giving him 37), does that still justify your spending your 1st Round, or even your 2nd, on him?  That’s a drop off of 52 points, not including the yardage that is lost.  Those 52 points brings him right back to the pack of available quarterbacks.  Are you really willing to bet your entire fantasy season, something you spent countless hours preparing for, on a repeat all-world performance from Tom Brady?  (Note:  I have oceanfront property in Montana if you’re interested)

In contrast, Shaun Alexander was the best fantasy running back in 2004.  So how screwed were you if you took Alexander with your first pick in 2005?  You weren’t, he was a repeat performer.  But let’s try that again.  So what if you took Alexander in 2006?  Then you experienced a significant drop off.  But did it ruin your season?  Absolutely not.  Because unless you made a real bonehead move in the 2nd Round, you ended up with LT, LJ, Gore, Tiki, Westbrook, etc.  You were just fine.  While you might not have won the whole thing unless you made a move to pick up someone like Chester Taylor, but you sure weren’t sunk from the gitgo.

Is this too conservative for you?  Are you someone who goes for the gusto with each and every move you make during your fantasy season?  Then listen up.  There are smart ways to win your league, and then there are not-so-smart ways to do it.  Making a bet-the-season pick on a quarterback in the first round is not the smart move.

Quick question: since 1997, how many quarterbacks have lead the league in touchdown passes in consecutive seasons, and can you name them?  Tick tock.  Tick tock.  Tick Tock.  Tick tock.  Times up!  Here’s a hint:  The answer has four letters.  Still can’t get it?  Zero.  That’s how many.  Any you’re going to wager everything you’ve worked for in hopes that Brady bucks the trend and does it again?  Good for you.  That’s ballsy; but wait!  That’s not good enough.  Just leading the league again won’t cut it.  It has to be another all-universe performance to even make the conversation about taking Brady in the first round relevant.  It’s just not going to happen.

That was the not-so-smart way to go for the gusto.  Here’s the brighter (I’m not claiming that anything I say here is smart, or even mildly intelligent.  But I sure can recognize foolishness when I see it) way to make you presence known.  Don’t take Brady.  Don’t be that guy.  Let your league know that you had the chance to take him.  But you didn’t, and that’s how confident you are in your research and your ability to build a solid team.  It’s not that you don’t need him, every team does, it’s that you recognize importance of value and you’re not going to commit the cardinal sin of fantasy football:  overpaying for underperformance.  (See Manning, Peyton 2005; for further analysis please see Jones, Thomas 2007)

Ok, I can see you’re not particularly impressed with my brighter way of getting the attention of your league.  So try this in the first three round of your draft:   RB-WR-WR, WR-RB-WR, or if your daring (and particularly if you’re in a PPR format) go WR-WR-WR.  That will wake some neighbors!  But grab that top talent at either position.  Sure, you’re gonna have weaker areas on your roster, but the deficiencies will still be less than taking any quarterback with your first pick.  Choose these horses wisely, and you can right them all the way to the title.  You’ve got to take some chances to win it all.  But they have to calculated, reasoned decisions.  Not rash, going with the new trend, decisions.

So that’s how I feel.  I know, I know…you don’t care how I feel.  But I say all of this for your benefit also.  Every league is better when all the owners are active and participating (even if the participation is only declining overly-generous trade requests).  My concern is that the owners who take Brady so early are going to so-devastate their teams that when Brady doesn’t put up the numbers they were relying on, and they begin that slow slide to the cellar, that they will lose interest in the season and become one of the millions of dead owners populating leagues all over the world.  And that’s not fun for anyone.  Just trying to make the world a better place…to play fantasy football.