Posts Tagged 2009
The Injury Update with Doc Sawbones
Posted by Fantasy Football Ninja in Injury Update with Doc Sawbones on June 8th, 2009
Good morning, good afternoon, or good evening. There was some interesting injury news this week and we’ll cover it all now.
Brian Westbrook (RB PHI) — Westbrook underwent surgery early last week to clean out bone spurs in his ankle. [Rotowire.com]
Fantasy Impact: The true extent of the injury, and the surgery, are unknown. The Eagles claim that it was a minor procedure, but information from unnamed sources is trickling out indicating that the surgery may have been more serious that then team is letting on.
We won’t know the impact this has on Westbrook’s performance for a while, but it is expected that he will be out until Week 1 of the season. While Westbrook may not need many reps in the preseason to get ready, until he is able to return to normal activity, he will be hard-pressed to keep up his fitness.
If you plan on drafting Westbrook, who is now available in Round 2 of many drafts, make sure you get his backup, LeSean McCoy, a round earlier than his ADP.
Joseph Addai (RB IND) — It was revealed this week that Addai had arthroscopic knee surgery in the off season. He has not participated in OTAs to this point during his recovery. [Rotowire.com]
Fantasy Impact: Addai is already teetering on the edge of receiving the “permanently injured” tag, and this knee surgery does not help matters. Until Addai returns to the practice field, which should occur no later than training camp and likely earlier, we won’t know how the surgery has affected his rapidly diminishing skills.
This news will likely drop Addai’s ADP to the late 4th or early 5th rounds. While the news is damaging to Addai’s draft stock, it should cause a rapid rise in Donald Brown’s ADP. Addai is approaching fantasy irrelevance.
Breaking Down a Mock Draft, Part Deux: Handcuffs and Sleepers
Posted by Fantasy Football Ninja in Fantasy Football Draft Strategy, Mock Drafts on June 3rd, 2009
Welcome back. In part one of this breakdown, we looked at the first six rounds of a mock draft, determined some winners and some losers, and decided that the starters we ended up with weren’t half bad. But starters are only part of the game.
Handcuffs: Not Just for the Boys in Blue
Depending on the size of your league, you have anywhere from five to fifteen bench spots available for your use. These are important spots and should be used wisely, not on the handcuff to the handcuff. Well wait; what’s a handcuff? A handcuff is a viable fantasy backup to one of your studs. For instance, Chester Taylor (RB, MIN) is a prime example of a good handcuff. We know Taylor is talented, and when given the opportunity in the past, performed well. So should Adrian Peterson be stricken by the Almighty, you have Taylor ready to step in and save your squad. That’s the point of a handcuff. Be aware that if you are targeting a talented handcuff, such as Felix Jones or Jonathan Stewart, be prepared to draft that player a full round ahead of his average draft position.
Now, what you don’t need to do is handcuff a bad player to your stud. For example, if you draft Steven Jackson, like we did, you will not be drafting Antonio Pittman. Even if Pittman gets a start, and with Jackson’s spotty injury history there is a good chance he will, Pittman is not a talented enough runner to succeed on a regular basis. So there is no point in having him on your roster. He will be available on the waiver wire.
So what do you do if the backup to your stud is not a potential stud? Go find one that will flourish given the opportunity. Pierre Thomas of 2008 is a good example. Marion Barber of 2006 is another. What you should be looking for are guys that have proven their worth at some point, but are currently backups, or guys with great potential that are currently in a timeshare. You want to avoid guys that are backups because they’ve proven that they cannot be starters.
Sleepers: Everyone’s Got One, and They Usually Stink
Sleepers aren’t even sleepers any more. Before everyone was riding the wave of the internet, successful fantasy footballers had to scour rosters, look for trends, and identify players that he knew others in the draft would overlook. All you have to do now is hop on the Google, search for fantasy football sleepers, and voila! List after list, after list. And they look pretty much the same. That’s because there are simply a limited number of guys with the potential to make an impact on any given football team. And most of that potential rests in opportunity. A guy can’t make a difference if he’s sitting on the bench.
Leading up to the beginning of fantasy football draft season, we will delve much deeper in to the topic of sleepers and how to identify them. But for now, to find some of your own sleepers, go look for guys that are in new situations. The player doesn’t necessarily have to be on a new team, but in a new situation (new head coach, new offensive coordinator, new quarterback, anything that has significantly changed). If a former bench player is now starting, due to the starter’s departure, but has not preformed impressively thus far, go take a look at his college scouting reports. See if the people that get paid millions to make these decisions seem to think he has what it takes to succeed. Maybe all he needed to get it going was the chance to fight for the starting job. Who knows. The point is simply that if you’re looking for that edge, you need to go look where other don’t. And in all reality, 90% of your sleepers won’t pan out. But when one does, like Chris Johnson or Eddie Royal, it’s all worth it.
And now on to the show…
The Injury Update with Doc Sawbones
Posted by Fantasy Football Ninja in Injury Update with Doc Sawbones on June 1st, 2009
Not too much going on the world of NFL injuries this week, but there are a couple of nuggets that you should be aware of.
Derrick Mason (WR, BAL) – Mason is coming off of a shoulder injury and it was previously assumed that he would likely miss training camp. However, it now appears that Mason will be ready for contact drills in late July. [Rotowire.com]
Ninjanalysis: Mason appears to be ahead of schedule. The Ravens know that to rush him back would be detrimental to his recovery, so we can only assume that therapy is going very well. Getting the Ravens’ leading ball grabber back on the field is imperative for the proper development of Joe Flacco. So the more time Mason gets to spend working with Flacco in the off season, the better. If Mason’s recovery continues to go well, you can start drafting him as your WR4, particularly in PPR formats.
Weekend Link Love
Posted by Fantasy Football Ninja in Weekend Link Love on May 29th, 2009
Just because it’s the weekend it doesn’t mean that you don’t need some reading material. So to get you through until Monday, here are a few points of interest for your review.
Interested in possible breakout running backs for 2009? Well you should be if you have any interest in dominating your league this year. Winning the championship takes a whole lot of skill, and at least a little bit of luck. So if you are able to identify those possible breakout candidates and stash them on your bench, your team is that much stronger. If you’re in to reading a whole lot of words, and it really is worth it, go check out the 2009 Breakout Running Backs report over on Ultimate Fantasy Football Strategy.
Have any designs on making Tony Romo your fantasy team’s primary quarterback? Before pulling the trigger on that draft pick, you might want to read up on whether Romo is still an elite quarterback without Terrell Owens over on the Fantasy Football Fools.
Many NFL teams have moved to a running back by committee (RBBC) in recent years. The Fantasy Football Cafe takes a look at teams that are currently using a RBBC, and which fantasy players stand to benefit from such an arrangement.
Mock drafts are, shall we say, super duper important when preparing for your own real live draft. Take some lessons from The Hazean’s first mock draft of the year.
There is a commonly held assumption that it takes an NFL wide receiver two full seasons to fully grasp all the intricacies of the position and become a viable productive player. These are the kind of players you want to fill your bench with. So if you’re interested in third year wide receivers that could impact your fantasy football season, go over to Fantasy Football Maniax and check out their list of the top ten third year wide receivers.
I will be participating in my first fantasy football auction later this summer, and have been scouring the intertubes for reputable information regarding how to be successful in the auction format. One piece of advice I keep getting is to properly assign auction values to your players. If you have an auction coming up, I suggest taking a look at the 2009 Auction Values list over at Fantasy Football Xtreme.
Have you ever been in the middle of a draft and been faced with the decision between two players who are of equal value, but one is coming off of a recent surgery somewhere below the hip? If so, the Fantasy Football Docs have a little bit of insight for you: The Running Back Two Year Major Injury Rule.
Those fine fantasy football folks over at ESPN.com, God bless them, have put out their projections for the Top 500 players. While I applaud the effort, the list is riddled with inaccuracies and flaws. But hey, if you know an owner or two in your leagues thinks that ESPN is the bee’s knees when it comes to rankings, print out the list, take it to your draft, and use it to your advantage.
Do your fantasy drafts typically start out RB-RB for every team? Ever wonder when to take a wide receiver to gain an advantage? If so, check out the Bruno Boys article When To Take a Wide Receiver.
There is simply no agreement among the “experts” on the top five best fantasy football players this year. These disagreements will provide you with some opportunities to exploit during your draft, and particularly during an auction. Pro Football Weekly has a nice writeup regarding this very topic.
A Collection of The Ninja’s Mock Drafts
Posted by Fantasy Football Ninja in Mock Drafts on May 28th, 2009
In the tabs above you, you’ll find a new tab labeled The Ninja’s Mock Drafts. This will be where mock drafts come to die rest peacefully. We do a few of these a week, and won’t be posting them all. But we will throw up an interesting one or two so you can evaluate it and see how the fantasy football draft landscape is changing. Most of the drafts will be conducted at Fantasy Football Calculator, but if we are ever invited (hint hint) to an “expert” or website draft, we will post those results as well. So view them at your leisure, post a comment or two, and let us know how you think we did.
Breaking Down a Mock Draft
Posted by Fantasy Football Ninja in Mock Drafts on May 27th, 2009
Participating in a fantasy football mock draft is one of the best ways to prepare for your real live draft. A mock draft gives you the opportunity to see where players are going and determine which players are undervalued and who is overvalued. Mock drafts also give you the opportunity to try out different drafting strategies that you might like to use during your draft. Maybe you’re wondering how you would fair if you decided to draft wide receivers with your first two picks. Or if you can build a viable team taking a quarterback in the first or second round (you can’t). But these are things you should consider before walking in to your draft with your cheat sheet. It takes more than a cheat sheet that you printed off from a website to build a winning team.
You can do as many mock drafts as you wish over at Fantasy Football Calculator or My Fantasy League. If you would like to see a collection of mock drafts from different sites, head over to The Hazean and check out the Fantasy Football Mock Draft Database.
For this writeup, we will examine the first six rounds of a draft I recently conducted over at Fantasy Football Calculator. We chose this draft because it provides an opportunity to look at the unconventional drafting strategies employed by other drafters, and the chance to analyze mistakes along with recognizing great picks.
Welcome to the Injury Update with Doc Sawbones
Posted by Fantasy Football Ninja in Injury Update with Doc Sawbones on May 22nd, 2009
Injury information is some of the most important information available to a fantasy football team owner. After a review of the injuries sustained by each of his players, an owner may then determine how that injury will affect his player, and what moves, be it a trade or a quick scanning of the waiver wire, need to be made to remedy the situation. So with that in mind, allow us to introduce a new weekly feature here at Fantasy Football Ninja, The Injury Update with Doc Sawbones.
During the off season and pre season, this feature will appear on Friday. Once the regular season rolls around, this feature will move to Monday, with a quick supplement on Tuesday. We will look at key injuries around the league, how the injury will affect that particular player, and moves you can make to cover the loss of a player.
Injury information is no less important during the off season. This is particularly important if your league has an early draft date. You need to know which players are coming off of surgery, how the rehab is going, and when they are likely to return to the field. And away we go…
Marques Colston (NO, WR) – It was revealed today that Colston underwent microfracture surgery in January. While Colston has not been participating with the team during OTAs, Head Coach Sean Payton expects Colston to return to full practice during training camp.
Fantasy Analysis: This is something to keep an eye on. It is assumed that Colston’s advisors, be it the Saints or an outside influence, have assured Colston that he’ll return to his old self following the surgery. And it’s possible he will. But as an elite fantasy receiver, Colston needs to be able to move and position himself to catch those Drew Brees’ bullets that should come flying at him at a fast and furious pace. Unless we hear differently, we will assume that the rehab has gone well, and that Colston will be back in great form come training camp. Just something to keep an eye on.
A Look at the Top 30 Wide Receivers in 2009
Posted by Fantasy Football Ninja in Rankings on May 20th, 2009
Well it seems that Johnson & Johnson top the rankings for fantasy football wide receivers going in to the 2009 season. Of all the offensive positions one can projection, future production by a wide receiver is far and away the most difficult to get a handle on. So many facets of the offense must work together to create the opportunity for the receiver to catch the ball. And then he must catch it. With that said, let’s take a look at who we think will be the Top 30 Wide Receivers in 2009.
1. Andre Johnson (HOU) 1575 PYD / 12 TDs
Johnson finished up the 2008 season with the most receiving yards of any receiver, but four touchdowns short of the league leaders. The core of the offense remains in place in Houston, so expect a repeat performance for Johnson this season. Schaub has another season under his belt, so if he and Johnson can stay healthy, the Texans offense should make great strides this season, and Johnson should have the opportunity to put up a couple more touchdowns than last year.
2. Calvin Johnson (DET) 1450 PYD / 12 TDs
Calvin Jonson is the most talented receiver in the NFL. Period. Johnson fought through three quarterbacks last season, none of which was overly talented, and still finished second overall in non-ppr leagues. With the departures of John Kitna and Dan Orlovsky, expect Johnson to be able to develop some rapport with Daunte Culpepper in the off season, which should translate in to a higher conversion rate on his 9 + targets per game. Regardless of which quarterback is throwing him the ball, Johnson will catch it and to see that, is a thing of beauty.
A Review of the Top Ten Running Backs for 2009
Posted by Fantasy Football Ninja in Rankings on May 17th, 2009
Now that the Fantasy Ninja has completed the player projections, it’s time to review which running backs are ranked in the top ten, and why. So much analysis goes in to projections that sometimes it’s helpful to sit back and see if the rankings pass the eyeball test. The rankings can be found under the Positional Rankings tab at the top of this site. Below, we will look at the top ten running backs, and dissect why each player is ranked where he is, his projected stats, and how we came to the numbers we came to. Beside each player name, you will see his projected production for the 2009 season.
1. Adrian Peterson (MIN) 1805 TYD / 16 Total TDs
Peterson enters the 2009 season coming off of a good year in regards to total yardage, but a sub-par season for touchdowns, scoring only ten times. Peterson finished 2008 as the sixth-best fantasy running back. Look for a jump in touchdowns in the 2009 season, but a decrease in total yards. The addition of Sage Rosenfels to the Vikings offense signals a desire to move the ball through the air. Should Rosenfels be successful in running the Viking offense, and that’s a big if, it may open the door for a few more rushing yards for Peterson. Finally, if Brett Favre joins the Vikings, as many suspect that he will, look for Peterson’s rushing yards to decrease only slightly.
A Look at the Top Quarterbacks of 2009
Posted by Fantasy Football Ninja in Rankings on May 12th, 2009
- The top QB of 2009
Now that the Fantasy Ninja has completed the player projections, it’s time to review who is ranked in the top five, and why. So much analysis goes in to projections that sometimes it’s helpful to sit back and see if the rankings pass the eyeball test. The rankings can be found under the Positional Rankings tab at the top of this site. Below, we will look at the top five quarterbacks, and dissect why each player is ranked where he is, his projected stats, and how we came to the numbers we came to. Beside each player name, you will see his projected production for the 2009 season.
1. Payton Manning (IND) 4200 PYD / 31 PTD / 12 INT
Manning finished last season as the seventh ranked fantasy football quarterback. Going in to the season, Manning was coming off of knee surgery, which limited his mobility. Not that he was overly mobile in the past, but the staple of the Colts’ offense was the stretch play which requires that Manning be mobile enough to move laterally to hand the ball off the the running back. Without the ability to execute this play as they had in previous seasons, the Colts offense shifted to a pass-heavy system. The offensive line suffered a myriad of injuries and as a result were unable to play as a cohesive unit. Top it all off with Joseph Addai’s injuries, and Payton ended up having a down year. Well, down for Payton at least.
This year the Colts bring in a new head coach, but the offensive system should resemble past seasons. The offensive line is not as good as it has been in the past, but is still a respectable group of hogs. Addai should be fully healed, and with the addition of Donald Brown (1.27, UConn), Addai should have a fire lit under his butt and realize that his job is in jeopardy. With the running game in check, Manning will have control of the air and should reestablish his productive relationship with Reggie Wayne, and continue building continuity with new number two wideout Anthony Gonzalez. Look for Manning to increase his yardage totals on a healed knee with a solid running game, and increase his touchdown totals.
